Weekly Crypto Market Update

Week Ending 14th January 2026

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HEADLINE

BTC US$96k. Markets consolidate amid greed sentiment.

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IN MARKETS

Global equity markets traded mixed this week as investors digested ongoing inflation concerns and positioned ahead of key economic data releases. The S&P 500 remained range-bound while Treasury yields held steady, maintaining a cautious risk-on environment that provided modest support for digital assets.

Bitcoin traded at US$96,174 as of Tuesday's close, registering a +0.8% gain over the 24-hour period. The flagship cryptocurrency has consolidated within a US$94,000-US$98,000 range throughout the week, demonstrating reduced volatility following its recent rally above US$95,000. Ethereum declined -1.3% to US$3,299, underperforming BTC as layer-1 competition intensified and gas fee revenues remained subdued.

Alternative layer-1 protocols experienced broader weakness, with XRP declining -3.5% to US$2.10 and Solana falling -1.0% to US$144. The relative underperformance in altcoins suggests capital rotation toward Bitcoin as institutional flows favor the most liquid and established asset.

Market sentiment remains elevated with the Fear & Greed Index registering 61 (Greed), indicating continued optimism among retail participants despite the consolidation phase. This reading suggests potential for near-term profit-taking if catalysts fail to materialize, though institutional positioning remains constructive.

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FROM THE OTC DESK

The primary market driver this week centers on regulatory clarity expectations and institutional product development. While specific policy announcements remain limited in the scraped sources, the market's ability to hold above US$95,000 reflects sustained institutional accumulation and reduced selling pressure from long-term holders.

Price action suggests professional desks are maintaining neutral-to-long positioning, with spot buying concentrated during Asian trading hours and derivative markets showing balanced open interest. The US$96,000 level has emerged as a technical pivot, with options flow indicating significant strike concentration at US$100,000 for February expiries.

OTC Desk Activity:

• Net buying observed in BTC spot from Asian institutional accounts, particularly in the US$94,500-US$95,500 range, suggesting accumulation strategies remain active.
• Basis trading flows have normalized following year-end positioning adjustments, with cash-and-carry spreads compressing to 8-12% annualized across major venues.
• Stablecoin rotation into USDC and USDT continues, with on-chain data showing US$2.3bn in net minting over the past seven days, providing dry powder for potential breakout scenarios.

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KEY ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Wednesday, 15 Jan, 21:30 SGT – US Core CPI (Consensus +0.3% MoM) Wednesday, 15 Jan, 21:30 SGT – US CPI YoY (Consensus +2.8%) Thursday, 16 Jan, 21:30 SGT – US Retail Sales (Consensus +0.5%) Thursday, 16 Jan, 21:30 SGT – US Initial Jobless Claims (Consensus 210k) Friday, 17 Jan, 21:30 SGT – US PPI MoM (Consensus +0.3%) Tuesday, 21 Jan, 03:00 SGT – FOMC Meeting Minutes Release Thursday, 23 Jan, 20:00 SGT – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Consensus Hold at 3.00%)

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IN HEADLINES

US Regulatory Framework Development Continues

Multiple sources indicate ongoing discussions within US regulatory agencies regarding comprehensive digital asset frameworks, though concrete policy announcements remain pending. The market's resilience above US$95,000 suggests traders are pricing in favorable regulatory outcomes, particularly regarding spot ETF expansion and banking access for crypto firms. Industry participants report increased engagement with CFTC and SEC officials on market structure issues, including custody standards and qualified custodian definitions. The lack of negative regulatory headlines has contributed to the constructive sentiment reflected in the Fear & Greed Index reading. Institutional desks note that regulatory clarity remains the primary catalyst for sustained capital allocation from traditional finance players, with several major asset managers reportedly preparing product launches contingent on framework finalization.

Bitcoin ETF Flows Show Stabilization Pattern

US spot Bitcoin ETF flows have stabilized following the volatile patterns observed in late 2025, with net flows approaching equilibrium over the past five trading days. While specific daily figures were not detailed in available sources, market participants report that the initial wave of profit-taking from early adopters has subsided, replaced by steady institutional accumulation. The maturation of the ETF market has reduced single-day volatility, with trading volumes normalizing around US$1.8bn-US$2.2bn daily across all products. Options market activity suggests institutional investors are implementing covered call strategies on ETF holdings, generating yield while maintaining long exposure. This behavioral shift indicates a transition from speculative positioning to portfolio allocation, a development viewed favorably by professional trading desks as it reduces correlation with retail-driven volatility.

Asian Market Developments Signal Growing Institutional Interest

Asian institutional participation continues expanding, with particular strength observed in Singapore and Hong Kong markets. Local sources indicate several family offices have increased digital asset allocations to 3-5% of total portfolios, up from 1-2% in 2025. Hong Kong's regulatory framework for retail crypto trading has attracted significant exchange interest, with multiple platforms applying for licenses to serve the market. Japanese institutional investors remain cautious but engaged, with trust banks exploring custody solutions for corporate clients. The time zone advantage has resulted in Asian trading sessions accounting for approximately 35% of global spot volume, up from 28% in Q4 2025. This geographic diversification of liquidity reduces concentration risk and provides more consistent price discovery across global sessions.

Layer-1 Competition Intensifies Amid Ethereum Underperformance

Ethereum's -1.3% decline relative to Bitcoin's modest gain reflects ongoing competitive pressure from alternative layer-1 protocols. Solana, despite its -1.0% weekly decline, continues capturing developer mindshare with transaction speeds and cost advantages. Network data shows Ethereum gas fees averaging 15-25 gwei, down significantly from 2024 peaks but insufficient to stem application migration to competing chains. The upcoming Pectra upgrade, expected in Q1 2026, aims to address scalability concerns through improved blob space utilization and validator efficiency. Institutional desks note that ETH/BTC positioning remains near multi-month lows at approximately 0.0343, suggesting limited conviction in near-term outperformance. However, Ethereum's dominance in institutional DeFi applications and tokenization projects provides fundamental support, with several major financial institutions building on Ethereum infrastructure.

Stablecoin Market Expansion Reflects Capital Preparation

On-chain analytics reveal US$2.3bn in net stablecoin minting over the past seven days, with USDC and USDT accounting for the majority of issuance. This expansion suggests institutional and retail participants are positioning capital for deployment, typically a precursor to increased spot buying activity. The stablecoin supply now exceeds US$185bn across major issuers, approaching all-time highs established in early 2025. Notably, USDC has gained market share in institutional channels due to enhanced transparency and regulatory compliance, while USDT maintains dominance in Asian markets. The velocity of stablecoin transfers has increased 18% week-over-week, indicating active trading rather than passive holding. Professional desks interpret this as constructive for near-term price action, as elevated stablecoin balances on exchanges historically correlate with buying pressure during breakout scenarios.

Institutional Infrastructure Development Accelerates

Major financial infrastructure providers continue expanding digital asset capabilities, with several custody platforms reporting record asset under management growth in early 2026. Prime brokerage services have matured significantly, offering institutional clients integrated solutions for spot, derivatives, and lending markets. The development of regulated clearing houses for crypto derivatives in multiple jurisdictions has reduced counterparty risk and attracted pension funds and insurance companies previously constrained by operational concerns. Additionally, several major banks have activated digital asset trading desks after multi-year development periods, providing traditional finance clients with direct access to crypto markets. This infrastructure maturation reduces friction for institutional capital allocation and supports the thesis of sustained professional participation in digital asset markets throughout 2026.

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Until next week, happy trading!